Germans were voting in a national election on Sunday that is expected to see Friedrich Merz’s conservatives regain power and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) score its best-ever result as Europe’s ailing economic powerhouse lurches rightwards.
Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but is unlikely to win a majority given Germany’s fragmented political landscape, forcing it to sound out coalition partners.
Those negotiations are expected to be tricky after a campaign that exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carries a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.
That could leave unpopular Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe’s largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.
It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges, including US President Donald Trump’s threats of a trade war and attempts to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.
Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008. The percentage who say their situation is improving dropped sharply from 42% in 2023 to 27% in 2024, according to pollster Gallup.
Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015.
