The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters.
Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.
A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons.
That view has not changed following President Joe Biden’s changed US stance this month on weapons, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.
“The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km).
Russia’s launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.
One of the five US officials said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as US escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort.
US officials said the intelligence has helped guide an often divisive debate over recent months inside Biden’s administration about whether Washington loosening restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons was worth the risk of angering Putin.
Officials initially resisted such a move, citing escalation concerns and uncertainty over how Putin would respond. Some of those officials, including in the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, feared lethal retaliation on U.S. military and diplomatic personnel and attacks on NATO allies.
Others were specifically worried about nuclear escalation. Biden changed his mind because North Korea entered into the war before the US presidential election, US officials have said.
Some officials now believe the escalation concerns, including the nuclear fears, were overblown but stress that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question. Russia’s ability to find other covert ways of retaliating against the West remains a worry.
“Russia’s hybrid response is a concern,” said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, referring to Russia’s sabotage in Europe.
“The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater.”
The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the intelligence assessments.
